POLITIKA questions
1- At least for the time being, what do Donald Trump’s electoral victories in Iowa and New Hampshire represent for his presidential aspirations?
The two victories are significant for Donald Trump as they set him up for the Republican nomination. A victory in the upcoming primary in South Carolina on February 3 would likely eliminate, or significantly diminish the prospects for his only Republican primary opponent Nikki Haley as she was twice elected Governor of that state. If she can’t win in her own state, Trump would have a good argument that she could not win nationally. Trump has consistently been supported by around 50% of South Carolina’s Republican voters versus 20% for Halley.
2- Who supports the number two Repubilican candidate Nikki Haily and what are her chances?
Polls indicate that in a general election Nikki Halley would beat Joseph Biden due to support from independent voters (49%) who are more numerous than Republicans (25%) or Democrats (25%). However, the primary system requires Halley to win in the Republican primaries where Trumps base of conservative voters of provide him 52% of the Republican vote.
3- Do you see a new Biden’s political strategy, particularly in terms of two now key issues - immigration and economy?
Immigration, or the Biden administration handling of illegal immigration, is a major liability for Biden as the number of illegals has been reported as 6.3 million since he was sworn in as President in January 2021.
A Pew Poll of January 25, 2024 indicates that only 28% of Americans think the economy is excellent or good. The poll shows Biden’s job rating is negative with 65% disapproving of his performance and 33% approving.
Biden’s surrogates have tried to convince voters, so far unsuccessfully, that economic indicators including employment numbers, energy prices and the stock markets are all positive due to his presidency.
4- In the short run, what might develop as challenges for both candidates— for Trump his legal issues and for Biden his cognative problems? How could that impact the course of election?
The strengths and weaknesses of each candidate have remained the same throughout the campaign.
Joseph Biden’s main strength is that he is President. His main weaknesses have been his age at 81 and concerns about handling immigration which have led to consistently low approval ratings in polls.
Donald Trump’s main strength is his solid base among conservative Republican voters. He is vulnerable to negative news during the primaries from any of the numerous court proceedings. His age at 77 also may be a factor in some of the upcoming primaries, a topic frequently mentioned by Nikki Haley who is 52 years old.
The election is still ten months away and there is still time for national an international events to effect public opinion about who should be president.
