Background

On 24 February 2022, Russian troops invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014.

Seven months later on September 28, 2022 the international press reported that leaks on the two Russian Gasprom owned Nord Stream 1 and 2 parallel natural gas pipelines were likely the result of sabotage. The two pipelines were constructed to transport gas along the floor of the Baltic Sea from ports in Russia to Germany. The Nord Stream pipelines were built to eliminate Russia’s need to use the Ukrainian pipeline system bringing Russian gas to Western Europe.

What we know.

We know that the Nord Stream pipeline systems are owned by a subsidiary of Russia’s state owned gas company Gasprom. The two pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2 each have two parallel pipelines. Three of the four pipes were damaged by explosions which do not appear to be the result of an accidental ignition of the flammable natural gas.

We also know that even with Nord Stream totally out of commission, the older Ukrainian natural gas pipeline system has the capacity to deliver all of the Russian gas needed by Gazprom's European clients.

The two views

Seymour Hersh’s research and analysis points to the United States are the likely saboteur of the Nord Stream pipelines. Hersh is a Pulitzer Prize winning reporter.

Political analyst and founder of the Eurasia Group consultancy Ian Bremmer finds faults in Hersh’s analysis and points to the greater likelihood that Ukraine itself with support of Poland is the likely culprit.

My view

I could not find any satisfactory explanation for the alternative view, proposed by some observers in the US, that Russia sabotaged its own pipelines. It made no sense since the Nord Stream lines were not transmitting gas and there was no need to shut production by blowing it up. Secondly, damaging the Nord Stream lines reduced Russia’s options with respect to future gas delivery to Europe. The damaged Nord Stream meant that only Ukraine’s pipelines could provide Russian gas to Europe if a surprise settlement was reached. This state of affairs was not in Russia’s interest.

Thus, I find Brenner’s analysis compelling. It makes a clear case for the Ukraine having the “motive, means and opportunity” to sabotage the Nord Stream pipelines.

 

Branko Terzic, in addition to energy industry experience was a US Army Reserve Foreign Area Officer ( FAO) for Eastern Europe (1979-1990)