Primary Race in Results in USA Appear Certain: Biden versus Trump
By Branko Terzic
POLITIKA in Belgrade Serbia March 1, 2024
https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/602041/I-Bajden-i-Tramp-imaju-podjednake-izglede-za-uspeh
American Serb Branko Terzic, an expert in foreign policy and energy, continues his conversation with POLITIKA , commenting on the significance of the recent primary victory in South Carolina of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Terzic is an internationally recognized consultant based in Washington DC. Earlier he served in the Bush and Clinton administrations as Commissioner on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and before that served as an official in the Wisconsin Republican Party where he was a delegate to the National Republican Convention.
Q. What is the status of the Democratic Party nomination for their presidential candidate in November 2024?
At this late date President Joseph Biden has no rival candidate for the Democratic nomination. It is expected that Biden will be nominated as the party’s presidential candidate at the Democratic Party convention this August in Chicago. While there is some talk about Biden stepping aside and allowing a younger candidate to become the Democratic nominee that is highly unlikely. Joeph Biden is the incumbent President, and he will be renominated to run for a second term. Except under extraordinary circumstances.
Q. What is the status of the primary race in the Republican Party for the presidential nomination?
After winning the South Carolina Republican primary February 24th former President Donald Trump has eliminated his remaining primary opponent former South Carolina Governor Nikki Halley. It is now difficult for Halley to campaign in remaining states, after losing in her own state. Trump has won all the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada as well as now South Carolina. While he has so far only 104 of the 1,215 delegates he needs at the Republican convention this is significantly more than Haley with 17 delegates. Importantly, Trump is leading in the polls in all the 17 states and territories which will hold primaries or caucuses on “Super Tuesday” March 5, 2024. Donald Trump will win the Republican Party nomination for President in Milwaukee in July 2024. Except under extraordinary circumstances.
Q. What are these “extraordinary circumstances” which may result in either Biden or Trump not being their party’s presidential candidate?
For Biden the main issue is whether there will be any public signs of deteriorating mental or physical condition causing him to voluntarily step aside before or at the Democrat national convention. So far, the signs of ageing which have been displayed by Biden have not diminished his support among Democrats. A secondary and more remote issue is the outcome of ongoing legal proceedings facing Biden’s son and brother and whether the President will be somehow implicated.
For Trump the primary issues are the timing and outcomes of the 91 legal proceedings moving ahead him in state and federal courts. So far Trumps support among his Republican core supporters needed to win the Republican primaries has not faltered. Most recently analysts have pointed to Trump’s recent intemperate and excitable campaign rhetoric. This may lead to self-inflicted harm among the independent voters which Trump will need, along with is hardcore Republican supporters, to win the national election.
Q. What do recent polls say about the results of a Biden versus Trump rematch for President in 2024?
A. Quinnipiac University poll dated February 21st shows that among voters today Joseph Biden would win 49% of the vote and Trump would get 45%.
The same poll shows that today 67% of the public believe Biden is too old and not physically capable of a second four-year term. This poll may have been affected by the public release of a report on Biden’s handling of classified documents which characterized Biden as “ a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.
Only 40% approve of Biden’s job performance.
However, it must be remembered that the Presidential election in the US is not based on the popular vote but on the results of each state election determining the number of electoral college votes obtained by the candidates. These types of polls have a +/- 3% points margin for error. So I would say the race could go to either candidate.